FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.87 – 144.36

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

179 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.6 ±12.4

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 4.23Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 103.84Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9239Panthers robotics

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 15.8Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.8 ±12.2

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 43.37Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 45.48Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9743MV TITANS

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 55.51Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4568, 5462, 9239

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4568, 5462, 9239

Auto

37.2 31%

Teleop

60.2 50%

Endgame

23.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5577, 5248, 9743

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5577, 5248, 9743

Auto

20.8 15%

Teleop

74.4 54%

Endgame

43.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.9pts

Blue projected score144.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.5
Score range: 94–174
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 165.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.6Season APEX323.8

37.2Auto20.8

60.2Teleop74.4

23.5Endgame43.1

6Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	22
teleop	80	69
endgame	55	42
foul	5	0
total	179	133

Result

Final score

179 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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