FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.36 – 76.4

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 88.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.1 ±11.7

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX -Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 36.86Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194 ±12.2

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX -Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9672Colon Magi Robotics

Season APEX 28Event APEX 14.29Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 36.86Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11423, 5152, 5577

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11423, 5152, 5577

Auto

17.2 20%

Teleop

41.8 48%

Endgame

28.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3658, 9672, 8126

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3658, 9672, 8126

Auto

12.1 16%

Teleop

35.8 47%

Endgame

28.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.4pts

Blue projected score76.4pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11
Score range: 49–114
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.1Season APEX194

2Auto4.6

16.6Teleop23.1

18.3Endgame23.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	13
teleop	98	69
endgame	46	17
foul	5	50
total	192	149

Result

Final score

192 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 88.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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