FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.07 – 134.51

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.1 ±12.2

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 7.22Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 116.14Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 91.71Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.8 ±12.2

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 82.36Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10654Tiger Bytes

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 24.11Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6556Spartan Robotics 6556

Season APEX 35Event APEX 28.04Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11407, 5152, 7211

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11407, 5152, 7211

Auto

36.2 17%

Teleop

111.7 52%

Endgame

67.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9215, 10654, 6556

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9215, 10654, 6556

Auto

32.6 25%

Teleop

70.3 53%

Endgame

29.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score215.1pts

Blue projected score134.5pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.6
Score range: 106–244
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 163.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.1Season APEX214.8

36.2Auto32.6

111.7Teleop70.3

67.6Endgame29.8

47Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	21
teleop	59	80
endgame	36	40
foul	5	5
total	171	146

Result

Final score

171 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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