FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.72 – 319.01

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.4 ±13.3

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 3.29Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 41.47Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7865HODAbotics

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 12.96Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.9 ±11.2

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 224.28Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9703Q_Bots

Season APEX 56Event APEX 22.77Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 71.96Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11407, 5150, 7865

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11407, 5150, 7865

Auto

24.3 44%

Teleop

23.7 43%

Endgame

7.2 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4237, 9703, 1502

/ 100 compat

Projected

319 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4237, 9703, 1502

Auto

56.9 18%

Teleop

185.6 59%

Endgame

70.2 22%

Strengths

· 4237 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.7pts

Blue projected score319pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -261.3
Score range: 29–348
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 162.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.4Season APEX403.9

24.3Auto56.9

23.7Teleop185.6

7.2Endgame70.2

58Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	67
teleop	42	189
endgame	38	58
foul	0	0
total	106	314

Result

Final score

106 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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