FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.03 – 321.26

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±12.2

11511CRTechnic

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 20.42Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 40.48Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 62.13Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484.1 ±10.7

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 2.66Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 220.7Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 97.9Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11511, 5248, 4855

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11511, 5248, 4855

Auto

27.7 22%

Teleop

76.5 60%

Endgame

22.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11460, 4237, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11460, 4237, 5462

Auto

64.0 20%

Teleop

177.3 56%

Endgame

77.6 24%

Strengths

· 4237 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123pts

Blue projected score321.3pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -198.2
Score range: 94–350
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 515 vs event baseline 160.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.3Season APEX484.1

27.7Auto64

76.5Teleop177.3

22.6Endgame77.6

24Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	77
teleop	78	190
endgame	40	92
foul	0	0
total	156	359

Result

Final score

156 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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