FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.52 – 73.37

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.3 ±12.2

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 15.71Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 38.01Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 12.8Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.8 ±13.3

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 31.46Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6556Spartan Robotics 6556

Season APEX 35Event APEX 33.75Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 8.16Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4810, 5150, 11496

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4810, 5150, 11496

Auto

23.7 40%

Teleop

28.0 47%

Endgame

7.6 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9776, 6556, 11423

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9776, 6556, 11423

Auto

22.5 31%

Teleop

21.5 30%

Endgame

28.2 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.5pts

Blue projected score73.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.9
Score range: 38–102
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 161.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.3Season APEX156.8

23.7Auto22.5

28Teleop21.5

7.6Endgame28.2

63Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	11
teleop	73	21
endgame	32	31
foul	0	0
total	123	63

Result

Final score

123 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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