FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.94 – 186.11

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.4 ±11.6

5538Vikingbots

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 7.89Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 46.93Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10654Tiger Bytes

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 24.12Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.2 ±12.8

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 115.42Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5227Eagle Elite

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 35.55Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11431TechnoTigers

Season APEX 74Event APEX 35.14Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5538, 5577, 10654

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5538, 5577, 10654

Auto

28.0 35%

Teleop

23.0 29%

Endgame

28.4 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5152, 5227, 11431

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5152, 5227, 11431

Auto

34.4 19%

Teleop

84.9 47%

Endgame

60.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.9pts

Blue projected score186.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.2
Score range: 50–215
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 161.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.4Season APEX253.2

28Auto34.4

23Teleop84.9

28.4Endgame60.2

0Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	68
teleop	49	91
endgame	27	56
foul	5	0
total	98	215

Result

Final score

98 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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