FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.06 – 159.96

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 55 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.8 ±12.8

11431TechnoTigers

Season APEX 74Event APEX 41.77Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9703Q_Bots

Season APEX 56Event APEX 32.4Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 52.89Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.5 ±12.4

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 21.05Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 103.2Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9672Colon Magi Robotics

Season APEX 28Event APEX 35.71Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11431, 9703, 5577

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11431, 9703, 5577

Auto

23.2 19%

Teleop

49.8 42%

Endgame

46.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11496, 5462, 9672

/ 100 compat

Projected

160 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11496, 5462, 9672

Auto

35.6 23%

Teleop

81.3 54%

Endgame

34.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.1pts

Blue projected score160pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.9
Score range: 98–189
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 161.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.8Season APEX295.5

23.2Auto35.6

49.8Teleop81.3

46.8Endgame34.9

15Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	48
teleop	31	46
endgame	26	4
foul	0	0
total	79	98

Result

Final score

79 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 55 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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