FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

73.44 – 59.79

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.7 ±12.2

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 36.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 9.27Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5227Eagle Elite

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 27.82Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.8 ±12.7

10654Tiger Bytes

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 24.45Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 45.22Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3234Red Arrows

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -9.88Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5248, 4810, 5227

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5248, 4810, 5227

Auto

26.4 39%

Teleop

21.5 32%

Endgame

20.1 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10654, 5150, 3234

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10654, 5150, 3234

Auto

28.7 50%

Teleop

7.3 13%

Endgame

21.2 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.4pts

Blue projected score59.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.7
Score range: 31–102
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.7Season APEX174.8

26.4Auto28.7

21.5Teleop7.3

20.1Endgame21.2

111Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	13
teleop	68	13
endgame	32	10
foul	0	0
total	125	36

Result

Final score

125 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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