FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

186.13 – 207.97

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

258 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 70.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±11

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 104.8Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 55.85Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 25.48Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.1 ±12.2

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 73.86Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 78.03Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9743MV TITANS

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 56.08Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5152, 4855, 9776

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5152, 4855, 9776

Auto

41.9 22%

Teleop

91.5 49%

Endgame

53.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1502, 7211, 9743

/ 100 compat

Projected

208 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1502, 7211, 9743

Auto

22.6 11%

Teleop

123.6 60%

Endgame

60.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.1pts

Blue projected score208pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.8
Score range: 157–237
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 160.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307Season APEX318.1

41.9Auto22.6

91.5Teleop123.6

53.8Endgame60.4

41Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	24
teleop	145	165
endgame	67	88
foul	0	0
total	258	277

Result

Final score

258 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 70.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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