FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.3 – 127.42

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.5 ±11.7

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX -6.76Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 72.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 9.93Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.5 ±13.3

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 76.84Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 15.54Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9672Colon Magi Robotics

Season APEX 28Event APEX 35.04Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11407, 1502, 4810

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11407, 1502, 4810

Auto

19.5 28%

Teleop

38.3 54%

Endgame

13.0 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7211, 11460, 9672

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7211, 11460, 9672

Auto

5.2 4%

Teleop

74.7 64%

Endgame

36.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.3pts

Blue projected score127.4pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.1
Score range: 46–156
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 160.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.5Season APEX199.5

19.5Auto5.2

38.3Teleop74.7

13Endgame36.8

133Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	12
teleop	46	78
endgame	16	34
foul	0	0
total	95	124

Result

Final score

95 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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