FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.31 – 176.1

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.2 ±13.3

10654Tiger Bytes

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 30.76Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 0.46Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11431TechnoTigers

Season APEX 74Event APEX 69.09Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.2 ±12.4

11511CRTechnic

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 21.53Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6588Counter-Torque Robotics

Season APEX 75Event APEX 54.39Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 100.18Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10654, 11407, 11431

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10654, 11407, 11431

Auto

27.1 26%

Teleop

26.2 25%

Endgame

52.6 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11511, 6588, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11511, 6588, 5462

Auto

36.3 20%

Teleop

95.9 53%

Endgame

49.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.3pts

Blue projected score176.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.8
Score range: 71–205
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 159.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.2Season APEX332.2

27.1Auto36.3

26.2Teleop95.9

52.6Endgame49.7

66Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	30
teleop	25	90
endgame	11	64
foul	0	0
total	67	184

Result

Final score

67 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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