FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.79 – 128.17

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.1 ±11

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 135.99Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5538Vikingbots

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 5.44Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 48.36Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.5 ±12.7

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 23.32Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5150Hybrid Hornets

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 51.3Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 53.55Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5675, 5538, 8126

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5675, 5538, 8126

Auto

22.2 12%

Teleop

103.0 57%

Endgame

56.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11460, 5150, 5248

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11460, 5150, 5248

Auto

21.7 17%

Teleop

75.9 60%

Endgame

28.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.8pts

Blue projected score128.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.6
Score range: 99–219
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.1Season APEX199.5

22.2Auto21.7

103Teleop75.9

56.4Endgame28.3

121Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	25
teleop	140	49
endgame	66	32
foul	0	0
total	252	106

Result

Final score

252 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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