FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.43 – 94.17

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

47 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.2 ±13.9

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 10.14Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9205Technical Marauders1

Season APEX 77Event APEX 21.67Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX -3.38Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.1 ±12.8

9239Panthers robotics

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 17.63Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6588Counter-Torque Robotics

Season APEX 75Event APEX 81.96Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX -5.42Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11423, 9205, 11407

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11423, 9205, 11407

Auto

10.1 34%

Teleop

14.1 48%

Endgame

5.3 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9239, 6588, 4810

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9239, 6588, 4810

Auto

27.9 31%

Teleop

43.2 48%

Endgame

18.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.4pts

Blue projected score94.2pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.7
Score range: 0–122
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 89 vs event baseline 158.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.2Season APEX269.1

10.1Auto27.9

14.1Teleop43.2

5.3Endgame18.8

94Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	15
teleop	25	26
endgame	10	1
foul	0	0
total	47	42

Result

Final score

47 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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