FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.5 – 102.95

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.4 ±12.7

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 60.21Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10654Tiger Bytes

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 15.81Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -13.52Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.3 ±13.3

4453The Red Hot Chili Bots

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 8.62Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 55.7Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7865HODAbotics

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 38.63Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5248, 10654, 4568

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5248, 10654, 4568

Auto

32.1 57%

Teleop

8.8 16%

Endgame

15.6 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4453, 7211, 7865

/ 100 compat

Projected

103 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4453, 7211, 7865

Auto

19.8 20%

Teleop

40.6 40%

Endgame

40.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.5pts

Blue projected score103pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.4
Score range: 34–132
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 158.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.4Season APEX222.3

32.1Auto19.8

8.8Teleop40.6

15.6Endgame40

58Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	29	45
endgame	11	22
foul	0	0
total	58	79

Result

Final score

58 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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