FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.3 – 150.01

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

116 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.4 ±12.8

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 53.08Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9743MV TITANS

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 45.76Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 27.46Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.2 ±12.2

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 45.44Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 87.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6556Spartan Robotics 6556

Season APEX 35Event APEX 17.06Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8126, 9743, 11460

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8126, 9743, 11460

Auto

-6.3 0%

Teleop

56.3 51%

Endgame

59.4 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10651, 5577, 6556

/ 100 compat

Projected

150 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10651, 5577, 6556

Auto

17.0 11%

Teleop

95.3 60%

Endgame

47.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.3pts

Blue projected score150pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.7
Score range: 97–179
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 161.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.4Season APEX272.2

-6.3Auto17

56.3Teleop95.3

59.4Endgame47

92Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	15
teleop	75	30
endgame	22	17
foul	0	0
total	116	62

Result

Final score

116 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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