FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

50.74 – 39.16

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 94.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.4 ±11.6

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 29.05Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5538Vikingbots

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX -22.47Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 44.16Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.7 ±13.9

11511CRTechnic

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 12.73Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5227Eagle Elite

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 16.35Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9672Colon Magi Robotics

Season APEX 28Event APEX 10.08Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4855, 5538, 3658

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4855, 5538, 3658

Auto

32.8 98%

Teleop

8.6 26%

Endgame

-8.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11511, 5227, 9672

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11511, 5227, 9672

Auto

11.4 44%

Teleop

20.2 77%

Endgame

-5.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.7pts

Blue projected score39.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.6
Score range: 10–80
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 162.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.4Season APEX148.7

32.8Auto11.4

8.6Teleop20.2

-8Endgame-5.4

178Consistency208

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	26
teleop	90	44
endgame	47	34
foul	0	0
total	175	104

Result

Final score

175 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 94.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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