FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.71 – 171.21

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

301 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 71.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.9 ±10.5

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 40.71Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 2.03Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 166.97Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.5 ±11.2

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 73.84Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3234Red Arrows

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 3.64Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 93.73Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9215, 9776, 4237

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9215, 9776, 4237

Auto

30.3 15%

Teleop

124.6 63%

Endgame

44.3 22%

Strengths

· 4237 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5462, 3234, 5152

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5462, 3234, 5152

Auto

25.6 15%

Teleop

95.2 56%

Endgame

47.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.7pts

Blue projected score171.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.5
Score range: 143–238
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 524 vs event baseline 157.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.9Season APEX363.5

30.3Auto25.6

124.6Teleop95.2

44.3Endgame47.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	45
teleop	159	115
endgame	79	63
foul	5	0
total	301	223

Result

Final score

301 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 71.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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