FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.12 – 208.43

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.4 ±12.8

11511CRTechnic

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 22.86Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4453The Red Hot Chili Bots

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX 20.09Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 80.17Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.1 ±12.2

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 29.83Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 146.06Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 32.54Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11511, 4453, 1502

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11511, 4453, 1502

Auto

18.4 15%

Teleop

70.4 58%

Endgame

31.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11496, 5675, 5248

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11496, 5675, 5248

Auto

44.8 22%

Teleop

122.9 60%

Endgame

37.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.1pts

Blue projected score208.4pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.3
Score range: 90–241
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 180.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.4Season APEX286.1

18.4Auto44.8

70.4Teleop122.9

31.9Endgame37.3

20Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	29
teleop	48	137
endgame	27	35
foul	0	5
total	86	206

Result

Final score

86 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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