FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.82 – 92.44

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

77 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.4 ±13.3

7865HODAbotics

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 21.96Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 65.36Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 6.5Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.7 ±13.9

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 9.58Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11511CRTechnic

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 31.04Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9743MV TITANS

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 51.82Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7865, 10651, 4568

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7865, 10651, 4568

Auto

20.6 22%

Teleop

52.1 55%

Endgame

22.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11423, 11511, 9743

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11423, 11511, 9743

Auto

22.5 25%

Teleop

43.3 47%

Endgame

25.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.8pts

Blue projected score92.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.4
Score range: 65–121
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 152.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.4Season APEX200.7

20.6Auto22.5

52.1Teleop43.3

22Endgame25.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	12
teleop	46	27
endgame	14	16
foul	0	0
total	77	55

Result

Final score

77 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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