FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.79 – 219.93

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 105.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.2 ±10.5

5538Vikingbots

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 7.14Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 14.16Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 120.49Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.8 ±12.7

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 90.47Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 53.99Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10654Tiger Bytes

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 75.47Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5538, 4810, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5538, 4810, 5462

Auto

24.5 17%

Teleop

91.3 62%

Endgame

30.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11460, 3658, 10654

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11460, 3658, 10654

Auto

26.9 13%

Teleop

116.9 58%

Endgame

56.6 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.8pts

Blue projected score219.9pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.1
Score range: 114–248
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 157.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.2Season APEX187.8

24.5Auto26.9

91.3Teleop116.9

30.9Endgame56.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	33
teleop	4	20
endgame	33	20
foul	0	5
total	73	78

Result

Final score

73 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 105.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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