FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

66.28 – 19.04

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.9 ±12.2

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 4.73Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11511CRTechnic

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 24.57Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 36.98Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.6 ±12.2

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 24.57Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9239Panthers robotics

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX -7.55Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5538Vikingbots

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 2.02Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4810, 11511, 3658

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4810, 11511, 3658

Auto

5.0 10%

Teleop

31.9 65%

Endgame

12.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1502, 9239, 5538

/ 100 compat

Projected

19 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1502, 9239, 5538

Auto

9.4 75%

Teleop

0.1 1%

Endgame

3.0 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.3pts

Blue projected score19pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.2
Score range: -12–97
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 170.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.9Season APEX254.6

5Auto9.4

31.9Teleop0.1

12.5Endgame3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	7
teleop	49	45
endgame	7	0
foul	0	0
total	78	52

Result

Final score

78 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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