FIM District Battle Creek Event presented by BlueOval Battery Park Michigan

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.56 – 181.59

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

377 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 166 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 458.1 ±11.2

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 53.69Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 22.03Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 55.84Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.2 ±13.3

6588Counter-Torque Robotics

Season APEX 75Event APEX 62.51Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 33.54Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7211Hollywood

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 85.54Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5152, 11460, 2767

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5152, 11460, 2767

Auto

32.6 26%

Teleop

65.7 53%

Endgame

24.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6588, 11496, 7211

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6588, 11496, 7211

Auto

31.7 17%

Teleop

103.9 57%

Endgame

45.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.6pts

Blue projected score181.6pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50
Score range: 102–212
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 164.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

458.1Season APEX255.2

32.6Auto31.7

65.7Teleop103.9

24.8Endgame45.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	20
teleop	235	50
endgame	124	20
foul	0	5
total	377	95

Result

Final score

377 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 166 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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