Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
124.62 – 188.96
31%69%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
105 – 381
Prediction correct · off by 105.8 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.1 ±12.8
Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 56.29Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 10.9Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 35Event APEX 57.43Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.2 ±10.2
Season APEX 77Event APEX 22.57Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 57.43Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 267.3Event APEX 108.96Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4855, 7865, 6556
63
/ 100 compatProjected
124.6 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 4855, 7865, 6556
Auto
27.3 21%
Teleop
68.0 53%
Endgame
33.0 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9205, 5462, 6002
79
/ 100 compatProjected
189 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 9205, 5462, 6002
Auto
38.8 21%
Teleop
95.9 51%
Endgame
53.0 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.07
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score124.6pts
Blue projected score189pts
Red win probability31%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -64.3
- Score range
- 97–217
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
196.1Season APEX540.2
27.3Auto38.8
68Teleop95.9
33Endgame53
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 27 | 75 |
| teleop | 49 | 218 |
| endgame | 29 | 88 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 105 | 381 |
Result
Final score
105 – 381
Prediction correct · off by 105.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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