Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

65.19 – 51.61

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 63.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.5 ±12.2

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 25.93Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 5.45Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8410Oyster River Overdrive

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 33.81Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263 ±11

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 39.84Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 3.07Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 8.7Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6153, 2648, 8410

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6153, 2648, 8410

Auto

17.5 27%

Teleop

38.8 60%

Endgame

8.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 172, 61, 8023

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 172, 61, 8023

Auto

27.8 58%

Teleop

1.1 2%

Endgame

19.4 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.2pts

Blue projected score51.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.6
Score range: 21–96
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 174.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.5Season APEX263

17.5Auto27.8

38.8Teleop1.1

8.4Endgame19.4

33Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	34
teleop	48	80
endgame	26	12
foul	0	15
total	102	141

Result

Final score

102 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 63.1 pts

Match videos

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