Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

440.91 – 307.02

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

421 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 811.5 ±9.9

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 214.29Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1307Robosaints

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 30.13Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 196.49Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 590.1 ±8.8

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 10.22Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 165.01Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 131.79Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5687, 1307, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5687, 1307, 6329

Auto

91.3 21%

Teleop

251.4 58%

Endgame

92.7 21%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3597, 190, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

307 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3597, 190, 7407

Auto

70.5 23%

Teleop

152.5 50%

Endgame

80.6 27%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score440.9pts

Blue projected score307pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133.9
Score range: 277–471
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 742 vs event baseline 166.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

811.5Season APEX590.1

91.3Auto70.5

251.4Teleop152.5

92.7Endgame80.6

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	63
teleop	243	171
endgame	84	82
foul	20	5
total	421	321

Result

Final score

421 – 321

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 pts

Match videos

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