Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.72 – 88.57

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 72.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.1 ±9.8

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 10.48Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 89.04Rank 7Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 17.2Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.5 ±12.2

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 33.63Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 12.54Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8410Oyster River Overdrive

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 42.4Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4041, 8046, 11131

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4041, 8046, 11131

Auto

31.7 27%

Teleop

59.9 52%

Endgame

24.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6153, 2648, 8410

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6153, 2648, 8410

Auto

21.0 24%

Teleop

52.5 59%

Endgame

14.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.7pts

Blue projected score88.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.2
Score range: 59–147
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 166.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.1Season APEX244.5

31.7Auto21

59.9Teleop52.5

24.7Endgame14.9

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	20
teleop	104	92
endgame	34	51
foul	0	0
total	188	163

Result

Final score

188 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 72.9 pts

Match videos

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