Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.16 – 242.44

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.5 ±11.6

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 47.34Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX -0.52Rank 20Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 43.34Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.5 ±9.8

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 89.21Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 105Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 48.23Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11131, 7907, 4473

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11131, 7907, 4473

Auto

12.5 15%

Teleop

46.2 56%

Endgame

23.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 172, 5687, 4041

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 172, 5687, 4041

Auto

73.7 31%

Teleop

133.1 55%

Endgame

34.3 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.2pts

Blue projected score242.4pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152.3
Score range: 62–270
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 155.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.5Season APEX546.5

12.5Auto73.7

46.2Teleop133.1

23.3Endgame34.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	107
teleop	28	43
endgame	7	55
foul	0	0
total	39	205

Result

Final score

39 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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