Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.91 – 233.16

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.5 ±11.6

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 19.43Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 9.64Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 20.84Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 473.7 ±10

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 25.53Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 170.47Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 37.16Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11336, 8023, 3597

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11336, 8023, 3597

Auto

8.5 17%

Teleop

20.6 42%

Endgame

19.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4473, 190, 172

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4473, 190, 172

Auto

50.1 22%

Teleop

102.9 45%

Endgame

73.2 32%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.9pts

Blue projected score233.2pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -183.2
Score range: 19–264
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 172.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.5Season APEX473.7

8.5Auto50.1

20.6Teleop102.9

19.8Endgame73.2

9Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	63
teleop	17	128
endgame	27	81
foul	0	0
total	52	272

Result

Final score

52 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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