Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.26 – 36.97

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.2 ±10.7

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 171.4Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1307Robosaints

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 30.37Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 27.49Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.7 ±11.6

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX -3.82Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 18.24Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 22.55Rank 18Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 1307, 6153

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 190, 1307, 6153

Auto

47.7 21%

Teleop

104.0 46%

Endgame

76.8 34%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 61, 4473, 4564

/ 100 compat

Projected

37 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 61, 4473, 4564

Auto

10.3 37%

Teleop

14.5 52%

Endgame

3.1 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score229.3pts

Blue projected score37pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 192.3
Score range: 6–260
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 169.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.2Season APEX265.7

47.7Auto10.3

104Teleop14.5

76.8Endgame3.1

7Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	27
teleop	131	32
endgame	27	40
foul	15	0
total	238	99

Result

Final score

238 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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