Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.83 – 162.94

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 599.6 ±13.1

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 194.03Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 97.58Rank 7Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6691Torque

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 10.22Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.4 ±11.1

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX 1.73Rank 20Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 13.64Rank 18Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 147.57Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5687, 8046, 6691

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5687, 8046, 6691

Auto

105.4 35%

Teleop

149.8 50%

Endgame

45.3 15%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7907, 4564, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7907, 4564, 7407

Auto

32.0 21%

Teleop

85.3 55%

Endgame

36.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score301.8pts

Blue projected score162.9pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.9
Score range: 133–332
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 532 vs event baseline 169.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

599.6Season APEX376.4

105.4Auto32

149.8Teleop85.3

45.3Endgame36.5

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	37
teleop	173	127
endgame	30	66
foul	5	0
total	302	230

Result

Final score

302 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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