Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.08 – 49.6

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 63.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.7 ±12.1

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 31.37Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1307Robosaints

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 38.89Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 31.82Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291 ±11

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 4.31Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 29.68Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 15.61Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6153, 1307, 11336

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6153, 1307, 11336

Auto

10.0 10%

Teleop

46.4 47%

Endgame

43.2 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8023, 172, 11131

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8023, 172, 11131

Auto

18.9 36%

Teleop

18.3 34%

Endgame

15.9 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.1pts

Blue projected score49.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.5
Score range: 19–133
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 172.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.7Season APEX291

10Auto18.9

46.4Teleop18.3

43.2Endgame15.9

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	13
teleop	23	62
endgame	5	37
foul	0	0
total	38	112

Result

Final score

38 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 63.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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