Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

280.41 – 187.47

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

319 – 375

Prediction missed · off by 113.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586.4 ±9.5

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 154.12Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 91.82Rank 7Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 34.47Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.4 ±11.7

8410Oyster River Overdrive

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 6.44Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 170.66Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 10.37Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 8046, 11336

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 190, 8046, 11336

Auto

64.2 23%

Teleop

130.1 47%

Endgame

80.8 29%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8410, 5687, 6153

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8410, 5687, 6153

Auto

81.8 44%

Teleop

89.5 48%

Endgame

15.1 8%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score280.4pts

Blue projected score187.5pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.9
Score range: 157–310
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 694 vs event baseline 167.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586.4Season APEX436.4

64.2Auto81.8

130.1Teleop89.5

80.8Endgame15.1

2Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	111
teleop	155	204
endgame	88	55
foul	0	5
total	319	375

Result

Final score

319 – 375

Prediction missed · off by 113.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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