Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.48 – 43.46

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.6 ±10.4

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 37.94Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 26.56Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 26.98Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.4 ±14.4

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 12.37Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6691Torque

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 13.66Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 17.43Rank 18Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2648, 4041, 172

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2648, 4041, 172

Auto

28.8 33%

Teleop

26.6 30%

Endgame

32.8 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11131, 6691, 4564

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11131, 6691, 4564

Auto

12.1 26%

Teleop

37.1 79%

Endgame

-2.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.5pts

Blue projected score43.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48
Score range: 12–122
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 170.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.6Season APEX229.4

28.8Auto12.1

26.6Teleop37.1

32.8Endgame-2.3

37Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	8
teleop	75	26
endgame	21	0
foul	0	0
total	115	34

Result

Final score

115 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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