Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

176.87 – 221.91

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 2.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.8 ±10.5

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 50.39Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1307Robosaints

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 32.38Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 94.1Rank 7Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.8 ±10.8

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 14.96Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 162.32Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8410Oyster River Overdrive

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 44.63Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 172, 1307, 8046

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 172, 1307, 8046

Auto

38.5 22%

Teleop

93.3 52%

Endgame

46.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4041, 190, 8410

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4041, 190, 8410

Auto

57.8 27%

Teleop

100.6 46%

Endgame

58.5 27%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.9pts

Blue projected score221.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45
Score range: 145–254
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 178.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.8Season APEX423.8

38.5Auto57.8

93.3Teleop100.6

46.4Endgame58.5

26Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	62
teleop	92	102
endgame	49	60
foul	0	0
total	174	224

Result

Final score

174 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 2.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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