Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

191.62 – 240.52

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405 ±10.7

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 32.83Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 5.64Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 153.15Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.4 ±13.5

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 43.73Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 178.69Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6691Torque

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 18.1Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4473, 8023, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4473, 8023, 190

Auto

40.6 22%

Teleop

93.6 51%

Endgame

49.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2648, 5687, 6691

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2648, 5687, 6691

Auto

81.8 34%

Teleop

120.1 50%

Endgame

36.3 15%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.6pts

Blue projected score240.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.9
Score range: 161–272
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 174.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405Season APEX472.4

40.6Auto81.8

93.6Teleop120.1

49.3Endgame36.3

9Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	84
teleop	38	82
endgame	91	7
foul	10	0
total	184	173

Result

Final score

184 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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