Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

320.79 – 214.58

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

421 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 80.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 697.9 ±9.3

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 169.18Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 15.45Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 136.16Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.1 ±10

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 153.66Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 2.06Rank 18Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3597Robo-Rangers

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 58.86Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5687, 4041, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5687, 4041, 7407

Auto

111.0 35%

Teleop

146.9 47%

Endgame

55.5 18%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 190, 4564, 3597

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 190, 4564, 3597

Auto

41.3 20%

Teleop

120.8 58%

Endgame

47.4 23%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score320.8pts

Blue projected score214.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.2
Score range: 185–351
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 697 vs event baseline 167.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

697.9Season APEX394.1

111Auto41.3

146.9Teleop120.8

55.5Endgame47.4

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	124	48
teleop	190	128
endgame	77	100
foul	30	0
total	421	276

Result

Final score

421 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 80.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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