Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.66 – 230.24

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 71 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.2 ±14.4

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 14.6Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX 11.67Rank 20Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6691Torque

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 13.39Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.6 ±10.5

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 35.66Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 43.74Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 150.84Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4041, 7907, 6691

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4041, 7907, 6691

Auto

18.7 55%

Teleop

-9.4 0%

Endgame

25.0 73%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6153, 172, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6153, 172, 7407

Auto

44.6 20%

Teleop

122.1 54%

Endgame

58.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.7pts

Blue projected score230.2pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -190.6
Score range: 9–261
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 171.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.2Season APEX455.6

18.7Auto44.6

-9.4Teleop122.1

25Endgame58.1

39Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	46
teleop	8	23
endgame	6	33
foul	0	0
total	26	102

Result

Final score

26 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 71 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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