Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.41 – 194.01

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.3 ±11.6

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 19.94Rank 18Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 13.05Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX 9.42Rank 20Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.5 ±14

6691Torque

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 1.74Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 27.91Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 164.36Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4564, 4041, 7907

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4564, 4041, 7907

Auto

16.7 39%

Teleop

15.3 35%

Endgame

11.1 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6691, 6153, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

194 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6691, 6153, 6329

Auto

27.4 15%

Teleop

105.9 57%

Endgame

50.9 28%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.4pts

Blue projected score194pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -151.6
Score range: 11–225
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 172.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.3Season APEX487.5

16.7Auto27.4

15.3Teleop105.9

11.1Endgame50.9

43Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	41
teleop	24	153
endgame	16	82
foul	15	0
total	62	276

Result

Final score

62 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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