Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.05 – 162.79

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275 ±12.2

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 42.01Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

172Northern Force

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 57.25Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8410Oyster River Overdrive

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX -2.21Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.4 ±10.5

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX -17.16Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 151.91Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 28.04Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11336, 172, 8410

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11336, 172, 8410

Auto

27.7 29%

Teleop

37.6 39%

Endgame

31.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 61, 7407, 8023

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 61, 7407, 8023

Auto

51.8 33%

Teleop

74.0 48%

Endgame

29.7 19%

Strengths

· 7407 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.1pts

Blue projected score162.8pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.7
Score range: 67–193
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 168.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275Season APEX414.4

27.7Auto51.8

37.6Teleop74

31.6Endgame29.7

11Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	31
teleop	51	109
endgame	23	49
foul	0	10
total	92	199

Result

Final score

92 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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