Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.45 – 170.78

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 608 ±10.5

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 147.36Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1307Robosaints

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 32.8Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 21.29Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.8 ±11.1

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 7.14Rank 18Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 30.53Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 133.11Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6329, 1307, 4041

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6329, 1307, 4041

Auto

51.7 26%

Teleop

93.6 46%

Endgame

57.2 28%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4564, 11336, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4564, 11336, 5687

Auto

72.9 45%

Teleop

70.0 43%

Endgame

20.9 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.5pts

Blue projected score170.8pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.7
Score range: 142–230
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 158.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

608Season APEX479.8

51.7Auto72.9

93.6Teleop70

57.2Endgame20.9

61Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	65
teleop	119	144
endgame	86	15
foul	5	0
total	243	224

Result

Final score

243 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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