Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.91 – 180.57

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 85.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.5 ±11.1

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 13.17Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 44.96Rank 7Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX -0.22Rank 20Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.7 ±11.1

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 41.08Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 34.3Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 105.19Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6153, 8046, 7907

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6153, 8046, 7907

Auto

18.3 33%

Teleop

25.3 46%

Endgame

11.6 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8023, 11336, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8023, 11336, 5687

Auto

65.0 39%

Teleop

62.6 37%

Endgame

41.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.9pts

Blue projected score180.6pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -122.7
Score range: 30–209
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 153.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.5Season APEX455.7

18.3Auto65

25.3Teleop62.6

11.6Endgame41.2

101Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	108
teleop	103	82
endgame	47	39
foul	5	0
total	181	229

Result

Final score

181 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 85.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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