Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.91 – 113.61

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 47.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448.5 ±11.2

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 37.29Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 148.05Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8410Oyster River Overdrive

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 17.57Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.6 ±11.6

1307Robosaints

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 59.04Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 26.81Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 27.76Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4041, 7407, 8410

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4041, 7407, 8410

Auto

45.1 23%

Teleop

82.9 42%

Endgame

70.4 35%

Strengths

· 7407 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1307, 4473, 11131

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1307, 4473, 11131

Auto

9.4 9%

Teleop

89.3 81%

Endgame

11.6 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202.9pts

Blue projected score113.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.3
Score range: 86–231
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 158.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448.5Season APEX321.6

45.1Auto9.4

82.9Teleop89.3

70.4Endgame11.6

89Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	0
teleop	95	23
endgame	19	28
foul	0	0
total	170	51

Result

Final score

170 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 47.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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