Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.44 – 234.36

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 193

Prediction missed · off by 80 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.5 ±11.1

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 114.75Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX -11.12Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 21.81Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 584.5 ±8.8

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 60.6Rank 7Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 129.05Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 44.71Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6329, 6153, 8023

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6329, 6153, 8023

Auto

13.2 11%

Teleop

76.9 64%

Endgame

30.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8046, 190, 61

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8046, 190, 61

Auto

43.9 20%

Teleop

92.4 42%

Endgame

81.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.4pts

Blue projected score234.4pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.9
Score range: 98–261
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.5Season APEX584.5

13.2Auto43.9

76.9Teleop92.4

30.7Endgame81.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	87
teleop	131	83
endgame	58	18
foul	10	5
total	244	193

Result

Final score

244 – 193

Prediction missed · off by 80 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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