Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

170.1 – 236.96

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 70.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463.6 ±11.1

11336Anomaly

Season APEX 88Event APEX 13.29Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4473Delta Prime Robotics 4-H

Season APEX 101.4Event APEX 28.38Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 128.43Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 591.7 ±10.5

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 199.01Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2648Infinite Loop

Season APEX 121.7Event APEX 15.42Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4564Orange Chaos

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 22.53Rank 18Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11336, 4473, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11336, 4473, 7407

Auto

31.8 20%

Teleop

86.9 54%

Endgame

43.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6329, 2648, 4564

/ 100 compat

Projected

237 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6329, 2648, 4564

Auto

25.6 11%

Teleop

145.8 62%

Endgame

62.2 27%

Strengths

· 6329 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.1pts

Blue projected score237pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.9
Score range: 138–269
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 178.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463.6Season APEX591.7

31.8Auto25.6

86.9Teleop145.8

43Endgame62.2

0Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	32
teleop	109	105
endgame	81	31
foul	35	5
total	247	173

Result

Final score

247 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 70.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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