FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.28 – 143.63

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 149

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.9 ±9.8

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 127.12Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 15.09Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 62.07Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.1 ±10.5

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 17.5Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 59.73Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 66.4Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 1719, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1629, 1719, 2377

Auto

45.8 23%

Teleop

111.8 56%

Endgame

42.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4505, 11318, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 11318, 9033

Auto

29.9 21%

Teleop

74.7 52%

Endgame

38.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.3pts

Blue projected score143.6pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.7
Score range: 117–231
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 150.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.9Season APEX307.1

45.8Auto29.9

111.8Teleop74.7

42.7Endgame38.9

25Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	21
teleop	53	82
endgame	33	21
foul	0	25
total	123	149

Result

Final score

123 – 149

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 pts

Match videos

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