FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

220.96 – 221.76

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

182 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.3 ±11.2

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 8.02Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 106.98Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 105.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 477.7 ±9.3

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 5.99Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 115.44Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 100.33Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11350, 3748, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

221 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11350, 3748, 686

Auto

43.4 21%

Teleop

111.4 54%

Endgame

52.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10679, 1727, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 1727, 614

Auto

33.7 16%

Teleop

123.9 57%

Endgame

58.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score221pts

Blue projected score221.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.8
Score range: 194–249
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 149.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.3Season APEX477.7

43.4Auto33.7

111.4Teleop123.9

52.7Endgame58.3

32Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	49
teleop	91	149
endgame	19	70
foul	5	5
total	182	273

Result

Final score

182 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Match videos

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