FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338.93 – 203.9

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

378 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.2 ±9.9

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 159.36Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 17.79Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 161.78Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.9 ±9.8

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 127.22Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 14.88Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 61.8Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2199, 2534, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2199, 2534, 836

Auto

58.4 18%

Teleop

204.4 61%

Endgame

70.7 21%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1629, 1719, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1629, 1719, 2377

Auto

45.7 23%

Teleop

111.3 56%

Endgame

43.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score338.9pts

Blue projected score203.9pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135
Score range: 177–366
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 589 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.2Season APEX397.9

58.4Auto45.7

204.4Teleop111.3

70.7Endgame43.1

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	49
teleop	215	116
endgame	78	41
foul	15	5
total	378	211

Result

Final score

378 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts

Match videos

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