FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.26 – 133.6

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.6 ±12.7

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 43.33Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 39.36Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 31.57Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.1 ±10.5

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 13.89Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 56.7Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 63.01Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6863, 623, 8622

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6863, 623, 8622

Auto

25.0 22%

Teleop

57.2 51%

Endgame

29.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4505, 11318, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 11318, 9033

Auto

29.9 22%

Teleop

67.2 50%

Endgame

36.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.3pts

Blue projected score133.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.3
Score range: 87–161
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.6Season APEX307.1

25Auto29.9

57.2Teleop67.2

29.5Endgame36.4

47Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	32
teleop	38	115
endgame	42	52
foul	0	0
total	109	199

Result

Final score

109 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Match videos

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