FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.73 – 135.81

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

301 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.7 ±9.3

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 0.86Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 109.52Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 94.35Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.1 ±10.5

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 14.31Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 58.32Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 63.18Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10679, 1727, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 1727, 614

Auto

35.2 18%

Teleop

111.7 57%

Endgame

50.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4505, 11318, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 11318, 9033

Auto

29.9 22%

Teleop

75.1 55%

Endgame

30.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.7pts

Blue projected score135.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.9
Score range: 110–231
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 146.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.7Season APEX307.1

35.2Auto29.9

111.7Teleop75.1

50.6Endgame30.9

20Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	30
teleop	178	41
endgame	94	62
foul	0	0
total	301	133

Result

Final score

301 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 pts

Match videos

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